In a market economy, the behavior of the degree of market uncertainty is high, and according to very great practical importance attaches to methods of analysis when you need to make management decisions at the same time evaluating all possible situations and making a selection from several alternatives.
Alternatives are compared on several factors:
v The time factor;
v factor in the quality of the facility;
v scale factor of the object;
v factor in the production of assimilation of the object;
v method of obtaining information for decision-making;
v conditions of use (operation) of the facility;
v inflation factor;
v factor of risks and uncertainties.
There are several methods by which this problem is to solve:
1. methods based on discounted estimates;
2. methods based on the accounting estimate;
3. optimal programming methods (linear, nonlinear, dynamic, etc.);
4. probabilistic approach (prediction of possible outcomes and assign probabilities to them);
5. Methods: maximin, minimax, maksimaks and others;
6. method of game theory.
Estimates obtained from this, are the basis for a final administrative decision, where the last word in the selection is up to the head.
The first group of methods (at discounted estimates) is based on the following idea. Cash proceeds received by the company at different times, should not be summed directly, or you can just summarize the elements of the reduced flow. i-th element of the reduced cash flow Pi is calculated by the formula:
Pi = Fi / (1 + k) i
where k - the discount factor.
Purpose of the discount rate is the time of ordering future cash receipts (revenues) and bringing them to the current point in time. The economic meaning of this concept are: the significance of the predicted value of cash receipts through the years i (Fi) from the perspective of the current situation is less than or equal to Pi. This means also that the amount Pi for the investor at any given time and programming via i Fi years identical in value. Using this formula, you can bring in a comparable form estimates of future revenues, expected to enter a period of years. In this case, the discount factor is numerically equal to the interest rate set by the investor, ie that the relative amount of income that the investor wants to or can get them on invested capital.
So the sequence of actions the analyst is as follows (the calculations are performed for each alternative)
* Calculated the value of the investments required (peer review), IC;
· Estimated earnings (cash flow) data Fi;
· Set the value of the discount rate to;
· Identifies the elements of the reduced flow, Pi;
· Calculated net present effect (NPV) using the formula:
NPV = E Pi - IC
* Values are compared NPV;
* Preference for that option that has a higher NPV (negative NPV-a testimony of this option uneconomic).
The second group of methods (based on accounting estimates) continues to use in the calculation of predictive values of F. One of the easiest methods of this group - the calculation of the payback period investment. Sequence analyst in this case is:
· Calculates the amount of investment required, IC;
· Estimated earnings (cash flow) data, Fi;
· Select the option for which the cumulative gain for fewer years will pay for the investments made.
We illustrate the range of alternatives for the quality factor and the factor of inflation.
The quality factor of the object in the development of the administrative decision is taken into account by the following formula
Yn = UnKkn.
where Yn - given the quality of the new version of the function value of the old version of the object (investment, price, cost, complexity, costs relating to consumption, etc.);
University nominal value of the function;
Kk-factor taking into account the quality factor of the object;
n - refractive index of the quality of the weight of the analyzed object (calculated using the expert method).
The expert method:
If you have a group of people who competence in this area is not in doubt, it is possible to interview each of the experts, asking them to place the target on the importance or "rank" them. In the simplest case, we can not allow to repeat grades, although this is not necessary - the repetition of grades can always be taken into account.
The results of peer review in our example, imagine a table of ranks purposes:
Experts
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Amount
A
3
5
1
8
7
10
9
2
4
6
55
B
5
1
2
6
8
9
10
3
4
7
55
Sum of the ranks
8
6
3
14
15
19
19
5
8
13
Total Rank
4.5
3
1
7
8
9.5
9.5
2
4.5
6
55
So, for each of the goals of Ti, we can find the sum of ranks, identified by the experts, and then the overall purpose or result Rank Ri. If the sum of the ranks assigned to the same-average.
Ratio is the quality factor of the object using the formula:
Kk = Pst / PNs.
where Pst - the value of the useful effect of the old version of the object;
PNs-value of the net effect of the new version of the object.
Initial data to account for the quality factor
object in making managerial decisions:
Number pp
Data
The value of indicators
1.
The average annual cost of operation and maintenance of the machine tool in 1994. Cu
1680
2.
Annual capacity of the machine in 1994., Pieces.
5180
3.
The coefficient of the annual increase in the average annual cost for operation and maintenance of the machine in the period 1992 1998g.g.
0,048
4.
Annual reduction factor productivity machine during the 1992 1998g.g.
0,058
We define the average annual cost of operation and maintenance of the machine in 1997 and its performance for the period:
Difficult = 1680 (1 + m 0,048) = 1921,92 USD
About 5180 = (1 - m 0,058) = 4278,68 pcs.
Where m - the period in years between the estimated year and the year for which we have data (in our case m = 3).
Initial data to account for the inflation factor
Data
The ratios
1. Number of sales "A" for 1995
2. Number of sales "B" for 1995
H. Price (annual average) production of "A" for 1995, cu
4. Price (average per year) production of "B" for 1995, cu
5. The inflation index by product "A" average in 1996
6. . The inflation index by product "B" for 1996
1380
128
168
488
1.43
1.36
The inflation factor is taken into account (in simplified form) as follows:
Yn = Y x Ip
Define the reduced by the end of 1996 prices of products "A" and "B", the volume of sales in 1995 at prices at the end of 1996 and the average inflation rate for company products.
The table at the end of 1996 the price of products "A" will be
168h1, 43 = 240.24 USD
The table at the end of 1996 the price of products "B" will be
488h1, 36 = 663.68 USD
Sales in 1995 at prices in 1996:
1380h240, 24, 128 h663, 68 = 416,482.24 USD
The inflation index for all products firm is defined as the weighted average:
Jsr = (1380h240, 24x1, 43 128 h663, 68h1, 36) / (1380h240 24 128 h663, 68) =
= 589,623.02 / 416,482.24 = 1.4157218 = 1.416
Note that if the decision is made in 1997, the prices should be given to this period.
Regardless of the estimates obtained by use of these methods, are taken into consideration and additional criteria, including the nature of the formal.
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