Forecasting economic growth.

Economic growth and its measurement factors.

Under economic growth is commonly understood as a qualitative and quantitative change in the results of the functioning of the economy. Economic growth is currently the most widely used measure of economic development. Economic growth can be measured, both in physical terms (physical growth) and value (cost increase).

The first method is more reliable, since it allows to exclude the effects of inflation. However, it is not universal, because the calculation of the rate of economic growth is difficult to derive a general indicator for the production of different products.

The second method is used most often, but not always possible to clean it up before the end of the inflationary distortions.

At the macroeconomic level, the dynamics of leading indicators of economic growth are:

- The growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) or national income (ND);

- GDP growth and ND in per capita terms;

- The rate of growth of industrial production as a whole, in the main branches per capita.

In the economic statistics for the study of the dynamics of economic growth using the growth rate and the rate of growth.

The growth rate = (GDP t / GDP t - 1) 100%.

Growth rate = ((GDP t - GDP t - 1) / (GDP t-1)) 100%.

In the Russian Federation since the early 90's the main indicator of the evolution of the economy was the gross domestic product (GDP). Over 90 years of Russia's GDP fell by 52%. In 1999, GDP per capita was $ 3,500 in the Russian Federation. Whereas in the U.S. it was 31,469 dollars, 26,420 dollars in Switzerland, Canada 24870 dollars.

According to the level of GDP per capita in the International Classification of countries are divided into developed and developing countries. Among the developed countries in the late '90s belonged country with a per capita GDP from the production of 6-7 thousand dollars a year or more.

Factors of economic growth.

Economic growth is determined by several factors. In economics, a widespread theory of the three factors of production, the head of which was J. - B. Sai. Its essence lies in the fact that in the creation of value of the product involved labor, land and capital. The modern interpretation of the conditions of production factors had a deeper and more expansive interpretation. Today it usually refers to:

- Labor;

- The earth;

- Capital;

- Entrepreneurial skills;

- Scientific and technical progress.

Growth factors are interrelated and intertwined. Thus, the work is very productive, if the employee uses the latest equipment and materials under the guidance of the entrepreneurs in the economic well-functioning mechanism. Therefore, to accurately determine the proportion of a factor of economic growth is difficult.

Moreover, these major factors are complex, since they consist of a series of smaller elements, whereby factors may be rearranged.

Thus, according to foreign and domestic economic elements can be identified external and internal factors. For example, a capital divided into entering the country from abroad and mobilized within the country, and the latter can be used to divide the country and on outgoing beyond.

Distributed and division factors depending on the nature of growth (quantitative or qualitative) for extensive and intensive. By the extensive growth factors include:

- Increase investment, while maintaining the existing level of technology;

- Increase the number of employed workers;

- Growth of the equipment, raw materials, fuel and other elements of fixed and working capital (or productive assets)

By the intensive growth factors include:

- Acceleration of STP (introduction of new techniques, technologies, modernization of fixed assets, etc.);

- Training of employees;

- Improving the use of fixed and working capital;

- Increasing the efficiency of economic activity due to its better organization.

With the predominance of extensive growth factors suggest predominantly extensive type of economic development, with the prevalence of intensive growth factors - mainly on the type of vigorous growth.

In the USSR in the 70's and 80's of the increase in the national income is only 20-30% was provided by the intensive factors. In industrialized countries the figure exceeds 50%.

Models and methods of forecasting economic growth.

The most widely used for forecasting economic growth, the factor model, ie a model in which the product or an absolute increase its production is contingent upon one or more factors.

Most appropriate for the analysis of the dynamics of economic growth at the macro level is a two-factor model in the form of the Cobb-Douglas showing the relationship of total output from two factors of capital and labor:

                                                                 and

Yt = AT Kt Lt, where

Yt-gross domestic product in the year t;

AT-normalizing parameter, leading scale and dimension to the scale factor and the dimensions of the product yt, reflecting the influence of factors not considered in the model and the changing conditions of production;

Kt - the amount of fixed capital (productive assets);

Lt-volume employed in the economy of human labor;

and - that characterizes the dynamics and the elasticity of the product yt on the size and dynamics of productive assets, or show growth yt, per unit increase in Kt (with Lt = const);

in - that characterizes the dynamics and elasticity of the product yt on the volume and cost dynamics of living labor, or show growth yt, per unit increase in Lt (Kt at = cons);

and and - calculation parameters. Thus, estimates for the manufacturing industry of the USSR in the 70-80s gave the following values ??of these elasticities, a = 0.28, b = 0.72.

Using these figures, we can determine the volume of GDP in the year of interest to us. Using logarithmic differentiation production function can be expressed in terms of average annual growth rates.

[Pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] yt = a + Kt in Lt, where

[Pict] yt-average GDP growth for the period of time t;

[Pict] Kt - fixed capital (productive assets) for the period of time t;

[Pict] Lt - increase in cost of living labor for a period of time t.

Depending on the sum of the exponents a and b can be three types of growth.

1. Expression of a + b> 1 means that if the inputs of n increases, the output increases more than n times, thereby increase the total production costs outpacing factors. This is the case of intensive growth, while if a> in, then we have fondosberegayuschy growth, and if> a, - labor-saving growth.

2. The expression a + b <1 means that the output increases more slowly than the increase of costs of production factors. This reduces their overall efficiency and is deintensifikatsiya growth, it is his downfall.

3. The expression a + b = 1 means that the output increases in proportion to costs of production factors. However, their overall economic performance remains unchanged and is purely an extensive expansion of production.

On the basis of the dynamic factor model can be predicted economic growth with the impact of STP on the volume of product produced. In this case, we will have a three-factor model:

                       and rt

At t = A t Kt Lt e,

where e - base of natural logarithms (e = 2.718);

r-elasticity coefficient, which characterizes the effect of NTP on economic growth in the period of time t.

The mathematical transformation, we can get the formula of the social product growth for the period of time t

[Pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] yt = a Kt + In L + r.

It is assumed that a + b = 1.

The most fully expresses the dependence of the results of the production of the quantity and quality of factors of production used multifactor model of economic growth. It uses the following factors: the increase in labor costs, increase productivity, STP, cost of capital, education and skills of workers; economies of scale, improving the allocation of resources, legal and institutional and other factors. Total factor is taken into account 23.

According to the calculations of the American economist E. Denison, for the period 1929-1982's real contribution to the growth of U.S. gross domestic product of each of these factors was as follows:

- The increase of labor costs - 32% of GDP;

- Productivity growth - 68% of GDP;

including: STP - 28% of GDP, the cost of capital - 19% of GDP, education and qualification of workers - 14% of GDP, economies of scale - 9% of GDP, improving the allocation of resources - 8% of GDP, the legal and institutional and other factors - 9% of GDP.

These data show that the increase in productivity is the most important factor that contributes to the growth of the social product.

A great contribution to the development of the theory of production functions have economists such as Robert Solow - Nobel Laureate, our compatriots: NP Fedorenko, G. Feldman, Anchishkin AI Chernikov DA

Robert Solow, for example, on the basis of the unit of production functions has proposed a model of economic dynamics, which allows to express mathematically the most important processes and outcomes of economic growth. It allows you to determine the trend of macroeconomic development of the required capital-and the optimal rate of accumulation, model types and technical progress.

Along with the factor model forecasting economic growth in economic theory known Keynesian and neo-Keynesian model of economic growth, for example, models and E.Domara R.Harroda. Domar's model is based on the use of a multiplier, and the underlying theory is the Harrod accelerator.

These models do not exhaust the whole range of developed and described in economic theory models and methods used in forecasting economic growth.

Forward-looking assessment of economic growth.

In the 90 years in our country and abroad have repeatedly attempted to develop projections of socio-economic development of Russia, most of which are very quickly becoming obsolete as a result of the ongoing economic crisis.

Thus, in line with the forecast of socio-economic development of the country until 2005, approved by the Government of the Russian Federation in 1996, it was assumed that, in accordance with the optimistic variant forecast in 1998-2005 will be provided with the GDP growth in the range of 4.5-5% per year. By 2005, expected to reach the level of GDP in 1992, according to the pessimistic scenario envisages that the average annual GDP dynamics in 1998-2005 will amount to 3.5 - 4%. In this case, there was a view that the first alternative in the Russian economy in 10 years will be attracted 112.5 billion dollars in foreign investment mainly, on the second version to be used in the main domestic sources of investment. However, experience has shown that the specified forecast was not quite real because of the ongoing crisis.

In the more noteworthy forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, developed in the early 90-ies of the scientific staff of the Institute employees Forecasting. According to the forecast of depression in the Russian economy will continue until the end of the 20th century. After 2000, the economic recovery will begin, 2001-2005, the average annual GDP growth of 3.4%. In 2006-2010 they could reach 5.7-6%. After 2010, the economy of Russia will move to the stationary regime with a growth rate of 5.5-6%. According to the optimistic scenario that forecast to reach the level of consumption in 1990 can no earlier than 2007, and in the realistic before 2012.

The full benefits of market-oriented economy may appear in Russia by 45-50 years after the start of the reforms.

In accordance with the results of studies conducted by scientists from the Institute of Economics, RAS, together with the employees of the MICEX under the leadership of L. Abalkina and published in the book "Russia - 2015: optimistic outlook", average annual GDP growth in 1999-2000 will amount to 6.4% 2001-2008 - 8.6% 2009-2015 - 3.5%.

According to the proposed strategy in the next two years, the activities of the state should be directed not only to stop the decline in production in the reform of the banking system and the strengthening of the ruble, but also to create conditions for the subsequent recovery.

At the second stage, 2001-2008, economic growth is expected primarily in the sectors of the consumer sector. The growth in real incomes can be 5-7% a year, investment in fixed assets 8.12% per year, increase the employment rate, improve the financial situation, a significant number of banks will be oriented to the real sector.

In the third stage, 2009-2015, the process of modernization of the Russian economy will involve improving the competitiveness of industries in the final product will strengthen the ruble will begin large-scale re-inclusion of Russia in the global market. By 2015, the upgrade is completed at the domestic engineering information and the industrial base. Probably the best part of the Russian economy is resource-use and high-end technology. However, by 2015, the process of building information-industrial society is still far from complete, and on social parameters closer to Russia only in industrialized countries. Task of building a full-scale industrial society can be solved only by the middle of next century.

References:

1. Forecasting and planning in the market: Studies. aid for higher education /. Ed. TG Morozov, AV Pikulkin. - Moscow: UNITY - DANA, 1999.

2. EA Chernyshev Forecasting and planning in the market: Studies. allowance. - M. PRIOR, 1999.