The main sections and the technical and economic parameters of the production program

Production program - the main section of the annual and long-term business plan for the development of the enterprise, which defines the scope of manufacturing and product nomenclature, range and quality in volume and value terms.

The production program reflects the major trends and challenges of enterprise development in the plan period, production and economic relations with other enterprises, the profile and the degree of specialization and integration of production.

The main sections of the production program for companies involved in the production of the material of the product:

plan for the production of commodity (gross) production;

roadmap for export;

plan to improve the quality of products;

plan sales.

In the development of the production program based on the needs of the economy and the world market in the production enterprise, the overall market situation, the state of competitive businesses and industries.

Formation of the sections of the production program is carried out using the balance sheet liability method to be matched volumes of planned work and the need for them, and to make payments under the production program production facilities, material, fuel, energy, and human resources.

Enterprises are planning their own range and volume of production, guided by government order, commitments to partners, commitments to supply sales organizations.

The initial data for the development of the production program are:

statutory activities of the company for the production and sale of goods (works, services);

the actual results of the production program for the previous periods;

data on the demand for the company's products;

information on claims, comments on the quality of the products in the previous period;

information on the share in the total volume of its production in the previous period on quality levels;

information on the volume of sales in the previous period in his period (month, quarter);

Calculation of the production capacity of the company;

progressive techno-economic norms and standards;

decisions of the higher authorities of the company's strategic development prospects.

In simplified form, the result of the preparation of the production program is shown in the answers to the key questions of management of industrial structure:

what types of products and how much to produce?

in what terms should be ready to ship products to the buyer?

what quality products should be in the planning period;

how much further the company can release a product, what kind of money in case of emergency orders;

what is the lower limit of the volume of output at which to switch to its preservation or stop for upgrading;

What should be the amount of resources consumed for the production of products and capabilities to meet them.

The plan for the production of the commodity (gross) products includes the formation of volumes of commodity and gross output.

On the readiness of products is divided into several types:

commodity products, ie finished products passed all stages of processing, which satisfies the requirements of GOST and TU, adopted by technical control quality, packed for shipment, deposited at the warehouse sourcing and procurement acceptance documentation;

unfinished products, ie unfinished products during processing which are at different stages of the production cycle of a commercial material;

semi-finished products of own production, ie production, manufacturing process which is completed in one shop or production and to be further developed in other departments of the enterprise or outside;

gross output, ie products of all types and qualities is now produced according to the extent of its availability. Index of gross production, characterizes the total production, including for external turnover (sales) and in-process consumption (VAT). In the gross output includes the observance of an industrial nature and production services.

Under the In-plant consumption (turnover) understand the value of the products and services operations plant consumed by the other shops as a company.

By factory production turnover include the cost of processing the company's own production of semi-finished products, the cost of electricity, steam, water, compressed air and cooling of its own production for technological purposes, ventilation, lighting and heating plants, factory warehouse, the building of the plant, etc., the cost of used for production tools, jigs, dies, models, parts, spare parts, accessories, materials, etc. own production, the cost of self-generated materials expended during the current repair and maintenance of equipment (lubrication, cleaning, etc.), the cost of packaging of its own production, designed for packaging of enterprise if the cost of packaging is included in the wholesale prices of these products.

Businesses with a high level of in-process co-operation, such as the production of nitrogen fertilizers, aniline dyes, organic synthesis products, plastics, rubber products, etc., having a large number of semi-finished products (intermediates) for domestic consumption and processing, in the form of the production program planned separate company balance sheets production and processing of semi-finished products (intermediates).

Totals plan for the production of products needed for the analysis of load, determine resource requirements for the production and tooling, the total output, its structure, the output growth rate and the dynamics of labor productivity, capital productivity of material and energy intensity of production, sales volumes and its structure, Other indicators of production efficiency.

The volume of commodity output in terms includes: finished products intended for sale on the side, its capital construction and non-industrial farms of the enterprise, its production of semi-finished products and auxiliary and ancillary industries, intended to leave to the side, the cost of the industrial nature of the work performed under the orders or from non-industrial enterprises and organizations of the enterprise.

The volume of gross VI includes all efforts, scheduled to perform in this planning period, it is determined by the following formula:

VP = TP - NP + NK

where NP, NK - the remains work in progress, semi-finished products and tools of its production at the beginning and end of the plan period, TP - commodity products.

For the purpose of elimination of past labor and revealing the results of production activities, the dynamics of production and depend on a number of business indicators of the enterprises carry out planning and evaluation of the net production volume instead of sales.

When a product contains a chemical produced by the beneficial agent is less than that provided by state standards, he believes in marriage and distribution of the product is not included. If the content of useful substances exceeds the norm, there is a need for conversion of manufactured products to a pre-set measurement units.

Only with the establishment of such solid units can be compared with the actual production of the planned and actual production for a number of periods and volumes of similar products produced by several chemical plants.

Weight units in volume terms (technical weight) without specifying the content of useful substances adopted for products such as synthetic rubber, carbon black, synthetic resin.

At some chemical companies (rubber products, tires, plastics products, etc.) units of gross output are standard units (eg, a square meter installation in conveyor belt; pieces, pairs, meters on individual products or groups of similar products).

The volume of production of fertilizers is planned in standard units based on conversion rates.

Release of products carried in conventional units to be scheduled at the same time in the natural and physical terms. It is necessary to perform a variety of calculations, the establishment of a total planned inside and off-site transportation of calculation of planned procurement prices, etc.

The volume of production of certain products, such as sulfuric acid, it is envisaged in the plan by type of feedstock (sulfur, pyrite, off-gases).

For commodity products chemical companies include finished products, including products made from high-grade raw material as well as from waste intended to leave to the side, as well as the different production needs of businesses, products and auxiliary and ancillary departments, including electric power, steam and the water produced at the plant, intended to leave to the side or on the non-production needs of the enterprise, the work of an industrial character; semi-finished products planned for release on the side of its products are repair shops, now being implemented on the side; packaging of its own production, if its value is not taken into account in the wholesale price.

The company with a large range, such as paints or rubber products, can set parameters output for the group (average) prices.

To ensure the rhythm of production, as one of the factors to increase its efficiency, improve product quality, and the whole of the enterprise, you need to very carefully allocate the annual production by quarters including: deadlines and volumes of deliveries of products; increase in output due to increase and improve the use of capacity and fixed assets, as well as through organizational measures, timing of commissioning of new facilities and equipment to ensure uniform loading and smooth operation of all production units of an enterprise, the number of working days in a year, a quarter, seasonality and shift work; requirements and seasonality of sales organizations Sales of individual products, the possible disposal of fixed assets, as well as excellent individual shops for the repair of equipment; phasing out of obsolete products and replace them with new types of products, etc.

Roadmap for export includes indicators in output enterprise that meets the requirements of its gas exports under specific agreements and treaties.

The plan to improve the quality of products includes updating the range and performance of consumer properties of products, due to the requirements of international and domestic standards of quality, innovation and development tehnodinamikoy production.

Quality is important for the enterprise products must meet its technical and economic indicators of the highest achievements of domestic and foreign technology at all stages of the design and manufacturing of products. Accordingly, these requirements provides for the replacement and removal from the production of obsolete products or upgrading obsolete products, the improvement of the basic characteristics of the products, compliance with standards, specifications and other technical documentation.

In plans to launch production of the enterprises provided jobs on the phasing out of obsolete products, ie product not meeting the current requirements of the national economy and population, outdated, specifies the time frame replacement of obsolete products, as well as new products (types, models) in their place.

The plan for the sale of products includes a performance in sales of enterprise products to specific customers, identified through market research.

Products sold - is shipped to the customer, adopted him and paid for products of the company, the funds for which were received on account of the supplier.

By the volume of products sold is estimated production and business activities of industries, associations and businesses. The volume of products sold in the plan is defined as the amount intended for delivery and payable in the planning period: finished products, semi-finished products of own production; works of an industrial nature, destined for implementation on the side (including the overhaul of its equipment and vehicles operated by the forces of industrial personnel ), as well as the sale of products and works for its capital construction and other non-industrial farms owned by the company.

The volume of products sold on the plan of RP can be determined using the following formula:

RP = TP + ON.P.1 - ON.P.2,

where TP - the volume of commercial production under the plan;

ON.P.1, ON.P.2 - the remains unsold goods at the beginning and end of the plan period.

In the calculation of realized production is taken into account changes in the balance of unsold goods at the beginning and end of the planning period. Balance of unsold goods to the top of the planning period is the remainder of the finished products in stock and unformed shipments, shipped goods for which no due for payment, the goods shipped are not paid in time buyers, goods in custody of the buyers.

In order to ensure the production program in the future is the analysis of the factors influencing the amount of sales as a result of:

growth in commercial products;

implementation of measures of technical and organizational development of the production, including the production of new products, improve product quality, implementation of new technological processes of mechanization and automation of production processes, cost of raw materials and other activities, structural changes;

changes in the balances of unsold finished products;

other factors.

The process of formation of the production program for companies involved in the production of energy or intellectual product has its own specific characteristics and in this tutorial are not considered.

References

For preparation of this work were used materials from the site http://www.cfin.ru/

Forecasting economic growth.

Economic growth and its measurement factors.

Under economic growth is commonly understood as a qualitative and quantitative change in the results of the functioning of the economy. Economic growth is currently the most widely used measure of economic development. Economic growth can be measured, both in physical terms (physical growth) and value (cost increase).

The first method is more reliable, since it allows to exclude the effects of inflation. However, it is not universal, because the calculation of the rate of economic growth is difficult to derive a general indicator for the production of different products.

The second method is used most often, but not always possible to clean it up before the end of the inflationary distortions.

At the macroeconomic level, the dynamics of leading indicators of economic growth are:

- The growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) or national income (ND);

- GDP growth and ND in per capita terms;

- The rate of growth of industrial production as a whole, in the main branches per capita.

In the economic statistics for the study of the dynamics of economic growth using the growth rate and the rate of growth.

The growth rate = (GDP t / GDP t - 1) 100%.

Growth rate = ((GDP t - GDP t - 1) / (GDP t-1)) 100%.

In the Russian Federation since the early 90's the main indicator of the evolution of the economy was the gross domestic product (GDP). Over 90 years of Russia's GDP fell by 52%. In 1999, GDP per capita was $ 3,500 in the Russian Federation. Whereas in the U.S. it was 31,469 dollars, 26,420 dollars in Switzerland, Canada 24870 dollars.

According to the level of GDP per capita in the International Classification of countries are divided into developed and developing countries. Among the developed countries in the late '90s belonged country with a per capita GDP from the production of 6-7 thousand dollars a year or more.

Factors of economic growth.

Economic growth is determined by several factors. In economics, a widespread theory of the three factors of production, the head of which was J. - B. Sai. Its essence lies in the fact that in the creation of value of the product involved labor, land and capital. The modern interpretation of the conditions of production factors had a deeper and more expansive interpretation. Today it usually refers to:

- Labor;

- The earth;

- Capital;

- Entrepreneurial skills;

- Scientific and technical progress.

Growth factors are interrelated and intertwined. Thus, the work is very productive, if the employee uses the latest equipment and materials under the guidance of the entrepreneurs in the economic well-functioning mechanism. Therefore, to accurately determine the proportion of a factor of economic growth is difficult.

Moreover, these major factors are complex, since they consist of a series of smaller elements, whereby factors may be rearranged.

Thus, according to foreign and domestic economic elements can be identified external and internal factors. For example, a capital divided into entering the country from abroad and mobilized within the country, and the latter can be used to divide the country and on outgoing beyond.

Distributed and division factors depending on the nature of growth (quantitative or qualitative) for extensive and intensive. By the extensive growth factors include:

- Increase investment, while maintaining the existing level of technology;

- Increase the number of employed workers;

- Growth of the equipment, raw materials, fuel and other elements of fixed and working capital (or productive assets)

By the intensive growth factors include:

- Acceleration of STP (introduction of new techniques, technologies, modernization of fixed assets, etc.);

- Training of employees;

- Improving the use of fixed and working capital;

- Increasing the efficiency of economic activity due to its better organization.

With the predominance of extensive growth factors suggest predominantly extensive type of economic development, with the prevalence of intensive growth factors - mainly on the type of vigorous growth.

In the USSR in the 70's and 80's of the increase in the national income is only 20-30% was provided by the intensive factors. In industrialized countries the figure exceeds 50%.

Models and methods of forecasting economic growth.

The most widely used for forecasting economic growth, the factor model, ie a model in which the product or an absolute increase its production is contingent upon one or more factors.

Most appropriate for the analysis of the dynamics of economic growth at the macro level is a two-factor model in the form of the Cobb-Douglas showing the relationship of total output from two factors of capital and labor:

                                                                 and

Yt = AT Kt Lt, where

Yt-gross domestic product in the year t;

AT-normalizing parameter, leading scale and dimension to the scale factor and the dimensions of the product yt, reflecting the influence of factors not considered in the model and the changing conditions of production;

Kt - the amount of fixed capital (productive assets);

Lt-volume employed in the economy of human labor;

and - that characterizes the dynamics and the elasticity of the product yt on the size and dynamics of productive assets, or show growth yt, per unit increase in Kt (with Lt = const);

in - that characterizes the dynamics and elasticity of the product yt on the volume and cost dynamics of living labor, or show growth yt, per unit increase in Lt (Kt at = cons);

and and - calculation parameters. Thus, estimates for the manufacturing industry of the USSR in the 70-80s gave the following values ??of these elasticities, a = 0.28, b = 0.72.

Using these figures, we can determine the volume of GDP in the year of interest to us. Using logarithmic differentiation production function can be expressed in terms of average annual growth rates.

[Pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] yt = a + Kt in Lt, where

[Pict] yt-average GDP growth for the period of time t;

[Pict] Kt - fixed capital (productive assets) for the period of time t;

[Pict] Lt - increase in cost of living labor for a period of time t.

Depending on the sum of the exponents a and b can be three types of growth.

1. Expression of a + b> 1 means that if the inputs of n increases, the output increases more than n times, thereby increase the total production costs outpacing factors. This is the case of intensive growth, while if a> in, then we have fondosberegayuschy growth, and if> a, - labor-saving growth.

2. The expression a + b <1 means that the output increases more slowly than the increase of costs of production factors. This reduces their overall efficiency and is deintensifikatsiya growth, it is his downfall.

3. The expression a + b = 1 means that the output increases in proportion to costs of production factors. However, their overall economic performance remains unchanged and is purely an extensive expansion of production.

On the basis of the dynamic factor model can be predicted economic growth with the impact of STP on the volume of product produced. In this case, we will have a three-factor model:

                       and rt

At t = A t Kt Lt e,

where e - base of natural logarithms (e = 2.718);

r-elasticity coefficient, which characterizes the effect of NTP on economic growth in the period of time t.

The mathematical transformation, we can get the formula of the social product growth for the period of time t

[Pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] [pict] yt = a Kt + In L + r.

It is assumed that a + b = 1.

The most fully expresses the dependence of the results of the production of the quantity and quality of factors of production used multifactor model of economic growth. It uses the following factors: the increase in labor costs, increase productivity, STP, cost of capital, education and skills of workers; economies of scale, improving the allocation of resources, legal and institutional and other factors. Total factor is taken into account 23.

According to the calculations of the American economist E. Denison, for the period 1929-1982's real contribution to the growth of U.S. gross domestic product of each of these factors was as follows:

- The increase of labor costs - 32% of GDP;

- Productivity growth - 68% of GDP;

including: STP - 28% of GDP, the cost of capital - 19% of GDP, education and qualification of workers - 14% of GDP, economies of scale - 9% of GDP, improving the allocation of resources - 8% of GDP, the legal and institutional and other factors - 9% of GDP.

These data show that the increase in productivity is the most important factor that contributes to the growth of the social product.

A great contribution to the development of the theory of production functions have economists such as Robert Solow - Nobel Laureate, our compatriots: NP Fedorenko, G. Feldman, Anchishkin AI Chernikov DA

Robert Solow, for example, on the basis of the unit of production functions has proposed a model of economic dynamics, which allows to express mathematically the most important processes and outcomes of economic growth. It allows you to determine the trend of macroeconomic development of the required capital-and the optimal rate of accumulation, model types and technical progress.

Along with the factor model forecasting economic growth in economic theory known Keynesian and neo-Keynesian model of economic growth, for example, models and E.Domara R.Harroda. Domar's model is based on the use of a multiplier, and the underlying theory is the Harrod accelerator.

These models do not exhaust the whole range of developed and described in economic theory models and methods used in forecasting economic growth.

Forward-looking assessment of economic growth.

In the 90 years in our country and abroad have repeatedly attempted to develop projections of socio-economic development of Russia, most of which are very quickly becoming obsolete as a result of the ongoing economic crisis.

Thus, in line with the forecast of socio-economic development of the country until 2005, approved by the Government of the Russian Federation in 1996, it was assumed that, in accordance with the optimistic variant forecast in 1998-2005 will be provided with the GDP growth in the range of 4.5-5% per year. By 2005, expected to reach the level of GDP in 1992, according to the pessimistic scenario envisages that the average annual GDP dynamics in 1998-2005 will amount to 3.5 - 4%. In this case, there was a view that the first alternative in the Russian economy in 10 years will be attracted 112.5 billion dollars in foreign investment mainly, on the second version to be used in the main domestic sources of investment. However, experience has shown that the specified forecast was not quite real because of the ongoing crisis.

In the more noteworthy forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, developed in the early 90-ies of the scientific staff of the Institute employees Forecasting. According to the forecast of depression in the Russian economy will continue until the end of the 20th century. After 2000, the economic recovery will begin, 2001-2005, the average annual GDP growth of 3.4%. In 2006-2010 they could reach 5.7-6%. After 2010, the economy of Russia will move to the stationary regime with a growth rate of 5.5-6%. According to the optimistic scenario that forecast to reach the level of consumption in 1990 can no earlier than 2007, and in the realistic before 2012.

The full benefits of market-oriented economy may appear in Russia by 45-50 years after the start of the reforms.

In accordance with the results of studies conducted by scientists from the Institute of Economics, RAS, together with the employees of the MICEX under the leadership of L. Abalkina and published in the book "Russia - 2015: optimistic outlook", average annual GDP growth in 1999-2000 will amount to 6.4% 2001-2008 - 8.6% 2009-2015 - 3.5%.

According to the proposed strategy in the next two years, the activities of the state should be directed not only to stop the decline in production in the reform of the banking system and the strengthening of the ruble, but also to create conditions for the subsequent recovery.

At the second stage, 2001-2008, economic growth is expected primarily in the sectors of the consumer sector. The growth in real incomes can be 5-7% a year, investment in fixed assets 8.12% per year, increase the employment rate, improve the financial situation, a significant number of banks will be oriented to the real sector.

In the third stage, 2009-2015, the process of modernization of the Russian economy will involve improving the competitiveness of industries in the final product will strengthen the ruble will begin large-scale re-inclusion of Russia in the global market. By 2015, the upgrade is completed at the domestic engineering information and the industrial base. Probably the best part of the Russian economy is resource-use and high-end technology. However, by 2015, the process of building information-industrial society is still far from complete, and on social parameters closer to Russia only in industrialized countries. Task of building a full-scale industrial society can be solved only by the middle of next century.

References:

1. Forecasting and planning in the market: Studies. aid for higher education /. Ed. TG Morozov, AV Pikulkin. - Moscow: UNITY - DANA, 1999.

2. EA Chernyshev Forecasting and planning in the market: Studies. allowance. - M. PRIOR, 1999.